ffinlo Costain – Food nature and national security, Producer and Editor, Farm Gate and 8point9.com .
ffinlo began by mentioning that his podcast, Farmgate, has several episodes likely to be of interest to members of this particular audience, including one called ‘How to prepare for a climate crisis’.
The adage ‘Think global, act local’ is fine, but ffinlo entreated us to also think local. Food security is inextricably linked with National Security, both being all about preparedness, but local knowledge and local thinking are critical. But what should we be preparing for – a crisis lasting a week, or a month, or a year? The answer to that is not known.
Our current system has issues with defensibility, leaving us vulnerable to attack from outside and even to ecological collapse. The current system itself creates vulnerabilities.
As a quaker, ffinlo told us that he yearns for peace on these islands as his children grow up, but is that going to be an option? The government has chosen not to share the full version of the report ‘Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security’, instead publishing a 14 page summary. Even in the reduced form it has some clear messages: ‘UK food production is vulnerable to ecosystem degradation and collapse. Biodiversity loss, alongside climate change, is amongst the biggest medium to long term threat to domestic food production – through depleted soils, loss of pollinators, drought and flood conditions. Ecosystem collapse would place the UK’s agriculture system under great stress, leaving it struggling to pivot to the new approaches and technologies that would be required to maintain food supply.’
Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. Cascading risks include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition.
In a food crisis we need to be more self-sufficient, we will not be able to import our way out of a such a situation as a crisis here is highly likely to be just part of a much wider crisis.
Food crises elsewhere in the world can readily lead to people leaving those countries and becoming refugees, trying to make their way to a safer country. It would make sense for us to invest in the food systems in such vulnerable countries so that those people can safely stay at home.
We wait to see how the current El Niño will impact the world in general, and ourselves here in the UK, but we can already predict that it will act to accelerate climate change. We cannot fool ourselves that climate change is a future problem – it is here NOW. We are particularly vulnerable in the UK to AMOC slowing down or stopping, with the fear that should that happen our climate would become more like that of Canada. In our preparedness, should we be preparing for higher or lower temperatures, for floods, droughts or snow?
NATO Article 3 can sometimes be overlooked, but ‘in its explanation of article 3, NATO says that “each NATO member country needs to be resilient in order to withstand a major shock such as a natural disaster, failure of critical infrastructure, or a hybrid or armed attack”. Civil preparedness is considered a central pillar of that resilience and a critical enabler of collective defence.’ (Taken from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-11080/ 20 Oct 2026.)
Requirement 4 explicitly dictates the protection of resilient food and water resources. So, the issues being debated at this food security conference are nothing new, and we have a commitment as part of NATO to be doing this already.
The issue of food justice also needs consideration. Food justice implies that we cannot simply import food from vulnerable, food-scarce communities in other countries. We need to work on local solutions here instead.
In summary:
1. The UK’s food system is a national security threat
2. Resilience must replace efficiency as a key goal
3. Nature and agroecology are strategic defence assets
4. The missing middle is as important as the farm
5. Britain needs practical food emergency preparedness
6. NATO Article 3 provides a powerful framework for action
7. The capital exists - the challenge is creating investable opportunities
8. The energy transition offers a blueprint for food and nature
9. Stronger food systems strengthen national and global stability
10. A defence focus offers a unique opportunity to refocus food system policy
ffinlo concluded by reminding us that none of these considerations detracts for a moment from the over-riding need to eliminate our use of fossil fuels.