National Emergency Briefing: National Security
Lt General Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE
Senior British Army Officer (retired)
Lt General Richard Nugee began his presentation by telling us that ‘even 5 to 10 years ago, if you'd raised climate change in the MOD, most people would nod politely, [and] move on’, but that , ‘the MOD is now looking at environmental impacts with a team working on climate security, energy self-sufficiency for our forces and how they can adapt to a rapidly changing planet’. This change is down to the fact that climate change is happening at a pace that is faster than was expected or anticipate.
In 2025 the Ministry of Defence published the ‘Strategic Defence Review’ which calls for a whole society approach to being better prepared for the threats coming towards us. We need to be resilient to ALL threats, be it threats from cyberspace, air, land, sea or climate change. Defence institutions in the UK, NATO and beyond perceive climate change as a threat multiplier, making existing threats worse or more frequent, as well as introducing new threats.
Climate change impacts global stability, for example by creating competition for water, food and land which all acts to fuel tension. Referring to his military career, Richard told of his personal experience of fighting in Iraq in 50 degrees C temperatures with 100% humidity. This led to his around 1000 soldiers getting through 250 drips, and 5 of them being repatriated to the UK with heat stroke. Those conditions are near impossible for the human body to function in. Such conditions feed migration which in turn fuels instability on the receiving countries, causing political tensions. As sea ice retreats in Arctic regions tensions rise over sea routes and access to resources – a fact we have all become more aware of recently.
Those are all examples of tension caused by climate change in the rest of the world but there are threats at home too. Supply chain problems caused by problems abroad can lead to food supply issues, as can crop losses at home due to climate change. Covid showed us a little of how people behave when there are shortages, be they real or perceived.
The military already have an increasing role providing support in emergency situations such as floods, fires, heatwaves and even reinforcing dams at risk of collapse (see image above). When properties suffer repeated flooding they will become uninsurable, creating personal economic crises. All of which gives us some insight into the difficulties to be faced if we fail to reduce emissions and to adapt our infrastructure to what we predict is coming.
Multiple crises have the power to compound one another, be it food, health, infrastructure, migration, energy, extreme weather etc. Too many of these hitting simultaneously have the potential power to erode trust in government. This raises the spectre of a country becoming an ungovernable state unless current governments take this seriously enough and act decisively now. If this does not happen then western democratic systems themselves are under threat and may not cope.
The bottom line is ‘unless we act, we will see a growing breakdown of the norms of society, the very essence of national security, perhaps highlighted by populist non-democratic regimes using authoritarian measures to solve perceived issues’.
Fortuitously, many of the steps needed to tackle climate change bring with them the kind resilience that is needed. For example, greater energy independence achieved by moving to renewable energy from imported fossil fuels, together with developing greater energy storage and a decentralised grid creates a system far less vulnerable to hostile actors.
The central message from this presentation was ‘Tackling climate is central to our national resilience today’.
‘We have to plan realistically for a future others cannot see, or would rather not wish to imagine, a future which would have untold consequences if it came to pass. And just because you don't like the risk does not mean it will go away — or can be ignored.’
‘If we do treat this as the security challenge it is, the solutions make us stronger. We end up with more secure energy, more resilient infrastructure and a safer, more stable society.’
Addressing climate change is central to national security today, not something to postpone or to be ignored. A resilient nation is a secure nation.
Lieutenant General Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE is a former senior British Army officer and leading voice on climate and national security. His 35-year military career included operational tours in Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan, where he served as Chief of Staff to NATO’s ISAF Joint Command. He later became Chief of Defence People and was awarded the US Legion of Merit.