Cop27 in 2022: get ready!
November news was all about COP26 in Glasgow, where the countries that had signed up to the Paris agreement in 2015 met again. The COP (or Congress of the Parties) was billed as the planet’s last chance to avoid catastrophic heating: did it work?
Well, there were certainly things that could have gone better: countries such as the Maldives, who are already suffering the worst effects of the climate crisis, got no increase in funding to help them respond to the extreme weather events affecting them already. Indeed, many representatives of such countries struggled to attend the COP at all, given the complications around transport and accommodation in Glasgow. A reforestation agreement was signed, but was so general in its terms that even Brazil’s Bolsonaro found nothing to disagree with. An agreement to phase out coal-fired power generation was amended to agree a ‘phase – down’, which was disappointing . The overall result of pledges made at COP26 is likely planetary heating of 2.4 degrees – way more than the hoped-for limit of 1.5 degrees, and enough to continue to justify the word ‘catastrophe’.
Was there any good news? Greenpeace’s closing comment was that COP26 was more than expected, but less than hoped. There was progress, although not enough to allow us to sit back on our heels. The weakening of the ‘phasing out’ of coal may seem disastrous, but, incredibly, this was the first time fossil fuels have even been mentioned in a COP agreement, even though they are the main driver of CO2 emissions and contribute to methane emissions.
Methane also got its own side agreement, with over 100 countries agreeing a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, some of the biggest emitters of methane, China, India and Russia, didn’t sign up, and the agreement focussed on leaks from fossil fuel production rather than reducing emissions from industrial agriculture or waste.
Another success of the COP was that limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees became the accepted target, rather than the previous aim of ‘well below 2 degrees’, a welcome acknowledgement that that extra half a degree, whilst seeming slight, carries a world of difference, doubling the rate of species loss; tripling human exposure to extreme heat and practically eliminating coral reefs altogether.
China and the US agreed to work together ‘on enhancing climate action’ throughout the 2020s. For the two countries responsible for 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, this co-operation is a very hopeful indicator of real progress to come.
Perhaps the most important result was that COP27 will be held next year, only a single year after COP26, rather than on the previous five year cycle. This means that countries will have to keep a strong focus on decisive actions to bring down greenhouse gas emissions dramatically, so that we don’t exceed 1.5 degrees of warming. The outcome of these actions needs to be a great improvement on the current 2.4 degree forecast.
So how can we best prepare for the next COP, now that they roll around like Christmas? Al Gore said at the close of COP26 that “The progress achieved in the lead-up to and at COP26 was only possible because of the power of people – young and old – using their voices to demand action”, and we must all play our part in making sure these voices continue to be heard over the next year. There are so many ways to do this! Here are my predictions for 2022, a little earlier than New Year.
There will be no shortage of climate marches to take part in over 2022, showing decision makers how much their citizens care. Young people will continue to make their voices heard through school strikes and other inventive ways of catching public attention. I predict that craftivism will continue to appeal to those who prefer a quieter, less shouty approach, but who still make efforts to show how much the planet means to them. I predict that conversations about the climate crisis will continue their journey to the mainstream; that climate cafes will spring up as places where people can gather to find more information about climate change and how they can help, and that conversations between friends will include the words ‘insulation’ and ‘heat pump’ more than ‘new kitchen’. I predict that communities will come together over climate change, just as they did in the early weeks of Covid, discovering ways to be more resilient against the effects, as well as how to contribute less to the causes, of global heating.
My predictions are rooted in hope, that by keeping the climate crisis on the front pages, we can ensure that our leaders are emboldened to take difficult decisions, both nationally and internationally. In order to keep the world from heating above 1.5%, we have to cut global emissions by at least 7.5% EVERY year until 2030. In 2020, with the great global pause of Covid, emissions reduced by 6.4% and are already back to previous levels. There’s a lot of work to be done.
As individuals, we can choose to fly less or not at all; we caneat less meat; we can reduce our energy needs and we can choose to reduce our consumption overall (yes, even at Christmas!) . But we need to keep the national and international conversation going. There are concerns that Egypt will allow less protest around COP27, and that those who campaign may find themselves repressed. In the UK we can still use our voices freely, and I would say we have a moral responsibility to do so. If not us, who? And if not now, when?
Rachel Ritchie
UN accredited climate change teacher and climate science speaker