Is the UK adapting to the inevitable changes due to climate change?

Once a year ERA likes to offer a talk that is a bit ‘back to basics’, that takes us through the scientific understanding of climate change. Ian Hawker’s talk, ‘Adapting to Climate Change: The Government must prepare the UK for inevitable temperature rise and associated climate change’, did just that. As such it made for sobering listening but we need to periodically remind ourselves of the reality of the situation we find ourselves in. Having done that we will hopefully then re-double our efforts to ensure the much needed changes actually happen, be that changes to our (individual and collective) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or changes to how we are living so that we can cope with the inevitable changes that are coming our way – mitigation AND adaption.

Ian began by reminding us that as the world is getting hotter, and weather is becoming more extreme, giving recent examples of 1700 dying due to floods in Pakistan, and Canada having their largest ever recorded forest fires. He feels that, ‘In essence we are using the earth’s atmosphere as an open sewer’.

Globally only around 16% of the energy that we use is coming from renewables, so we have a long way to go. Due to this very limited progress a huge gap is opening up between what we need to do in reducing GHG emissions and what we are actually doing:

Inevitably, in a warming world, more areas will become uninhabitable and migration will necessarily increase.

In the UK our summers are set to get hotter and drier, with extreme rainfall patterns, creating risks to agriculture and health. The Climate Change Committee identifies 8 top risks which include: risks to soil health from flooding and drought; risks to crops and livestock due to frequent droughts; risk to power supply due to extreme weather; risks to human health due to overheating; risk to imports as supply of overseas goods become less reliable.

The UK government is mandated to produce National Adaptation Plans, the latest one being NAP3, published in 2023. However, it includes little strategy/policies or discussion of costs. Adaptation remains a Cinderella area, we are not getting the lead that is needed from the government.

Ian went on to discuss specific areas of concern and some of the adaptions that are necessary.

Water supply in the UK will face significant difficulties. The Southeast of England will not have enough water by 2050. Population growth and changing lifestyles leads to ever increasing water demand. Our water companies are mostly privately owned by foreign investors which has led to under-investment in infrastructure. As a result, we still have 25% of our water lost through leaks, and untreated sewage entering our waterways regularly. Ian suggested that a national water grid will be necessary and that leaks simply must be addressed. As individuals we have a role to play, working out how we can all use less water in our homes.

Moving on to talk about food security Ian told us that climate change increases the risk of ‘food shocks’ worldwide – sudden and unexpected food shortages due to crop failures following droughts. We need to produce more food in the UK, both in our own gardens and through farming, predominantly through regenerative farming methods which use less water and result in less damage to the soil. We should also increase the range of food types that we eat, some examples being sea vegetables or cultured meat.

How do we adapt to the increasing risk of flooding? Clearly, we need to stop building on flood plains! More than that, rainwater needs to be held back during extreme rains through swales, SuDS, rain gardens, beaver reintroductions etc. Ian informed us that ‘one in eleven East of England flood defence systems [are] considered unfit by the Environment Agency’. For sea level rise impact maps see https://flood.firetree.net/

170 power stations and 463 electrical substations in the UK are at risk of surface water flooding.

Extreme heat events were rare 100 years ago here in the UK, but are becoming much more common. In 2022 and 2023 there were 10 – 15 days of extreme heat, more than 30C. This is an increasing health risk. Our homes need to be adapted such as use of ground source heat pumps for cooling as well as heating, seasonal shading. The 2025 Future Home Standards look pretty good but will make houses more expensive. How will this be inspected to ensure it is achieving what it should be? Existing homes may prove more problematic to adapt. It is possible to have air conditioning units that run directly off of one’s solar panels. More plants and trees will help to keep towns and cities cooler. Painting rooves white reflects some heat back from buildings.

At the moment there is no national plan for public health climate change adaption addressing issues such as heat, disease, infestation. The government needs to allocate funds to allow this to happen. UK heat related deaths are expected to rise from 2000 per year in 2020 to 7000 per year in 2050 according to the Journal of Public Health Report, June 2021.

Of the 218 countries assessed for biodiversity the UK is ranked 189, we are right near the bottom, we are a majorly nature depleted. The abundance of UK species has declined by 50% since 1970 as compared to a global average of 25%.

The UK Environment Act 2021 will restore 75% of protected sites on land (including freshwaters) to favourable conditions; create/restore 500,000hectares of additional wildlife-rich habitat outside of protected sites; recover threatened plant species by providing more, diverse and better-connected habitats; plant more trees, 30,000 hectares per year,  (but only 12,960 hectares were planted in 2022).

How will we adapt to the increased incidences of wildfires? There were more than 44,000 wildfires in the UK in 2022, a 72% increase on the previous year, but currently there are only 5 specialist wildfire units in the UK. There are, however, plans to form more rapid response wildfire teams.

So, we can see that there is much to do in many distinct areas. The estimated cost of the 2023 National Adaption Plan (NAP3) is estimated to be £20 billion per year. The Government has allocated £6 billion which includes 5.2 billion for flood defences.

But where are the climate adaption plans? Ian finished by outlining what he feels needs to be done to move us in the right direction, and asap: a vision for a Climate Adapted UK; strong government leadership; co-ordinated delivery across all government departments; focus on all climate risks; funding; regulations and market incentives to make it happen; effective monitoring and progress reporting; local government involvement with sufficient finance; public education.

Ian is doing his best with that final one and we are grateful for his time and expertise delivering this information packed talk.