Not all bad news from COP28
The UN Conference of the Parties (COP28) was held in the UAE and chaired by the boss of the State Oil Company, Sultan Al Jaber. It was attended by 907,000 people of whom 2,400 represented the interests of the fossil fuels industry. The event took place towards the end of a record breaking climate year- 2023, the warmest yet. 198 countries were participating.
A landmark decision was taken to transition away from fossil fuels, this being the first time fossil fuels were mentioned at a COP. However there were many weaknesses and omissions in the final agreement. It did not include any explicit undertaking to phase out or even phase down fossil fuels but aimed only that countries transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems whilst still achieving net zero by 2050.
There was considerable lobbying from both the fossil fuel industries and OPEC who tried to resist any mention of the restriction of fossil fuels. Removal strategies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage were stressed, but most climate leaders see these as having a limited role as they are expensive, do not reach the scale required and allow the fossil fuel industry to carry on as usual.
It is now important to see that the end of the fossil fuel era is coming despite the fact that some petrostates are planning to extract more oil, gas and coal. Investors and governments must look to renewables, where investment is growing. The energy produced is cheaper, faster and more secure. However no figure was provided by the COP of the numbers of trillions of dollars needed and by when it would need to be delivered.
There was agreement about ‘loss and damage’ which involves how to compensate poorer countries for the impact of the climate change they had not caused. Vulnerable countries also wanted a plan on adaptation measures such as halting deforestation and promoting the sustainable management of forests but they did not see the final deal as fair to them and more to do with retaining the status quo. They see that the real polluting nations should transition first as they became rich by burning fossil fuels and are most responsible for climate breakdown. Yet there was no commitment to shoulder the burden and help developing countries to adapt to the climate crisis so there was a considerable disappointment from these countries.
There were other agreements including a commitment to consider the emissions from agriculture and world shipping but that is still very vague.
Different standards currently operating to regulate carbon trading were brought together and unified so hopefully businesses involved will welcome the clarity and be more confident to act.
One big step forward brought the alignment of the COPs with the Convention on Biological Diversity, thus championing nature conservation and restoration.
It is difficult to assess finally whether or not COP 28 was a success or a failure. The failures surround the justice for smaller countries, by not binding rich countries to finance them for a global transition. COP29 will address financing.
However, although not ambitious enough, two years ago it would have been unimaginable that all countries would agree to the need to transition away from fossil fuels.